Horizon Aircraft expect strong eVTOL order books but market consolidation

In 2021 there were approximately 6,850 eVTOL orders (firm orders, options and letters of intent) worth around $26.1 billion.

The study found that professional investors expect manned advanced air mobility aircraft to continue to dominate the order books. They accounted for around 80% or orders in 2021, and by 2025, (1) 72% of private equity and venture capital professionals predict them to account for between 80% to 90%. One in five (21%) said they will make up around 80% of orders, and just 4% said it will be less than this.

However, despite a growing order book, 86% of the private equity and venture capital professionals interviewed expect the rate at which eVTOL concepts - there are currently around 700 - go defunct over the next three years to increase. One in five (22%) anticipate a dramatic rise. Similarly, they anticipate a fall in the number of manned advanced air mobility companies by 2025. There are currently around 300 of these companies, but in three years time 69% of professional investors surveyed said the number will fall. Around 18% think there will be 150 or fewer, and 31% believe there will be between 200 and 250. One in five (20%) anticipate there being between 250 and 300 manned advanced mobility companies.

Brandon Robinson, CEO of Horizon Aircraft said: “As the eVTOL market develops, the industry’s order book is expecting strong growth, but our research clearly shows there is also expected to be significant consolidation in both the number of companies in the sector and prototype aircraft.

“Investors will increasingly focus on those aircraft that have the best chance of meeting regulatory requirements and have the potential to be commercially viable.”