IATA announces estimates for SAF production

“The doubling of SAF production in 2023 was encouraging as is the expected tripling of production expected in 2024. But even with that impressive growth, SAF as a portion of all renewable fuel production will only grow from 3% this year to 6% in 2024. This allocation limits SAF supply and keeps prices high. Aviation needs between 25% and 30% of renewable fuel production capacity for SAF. At those levels aviation will be on the trajectory needed to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Until such levels are reached, we will continue missing huge opportunities to advance aviation’s decarbonisation. It is government policy that will make the difference. Governments must prioritise policies to incentivise the scaling-up of SAF production and to diversify feedstocks with those available locally,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.

CAAF/3 outcome

The Third Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) hosted by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) agreed a global framework to promote SAF production in all geographies for fuels used in international aviation to be 5% less carbon intensive by 2030. To reach this level, about 17.5 billion litres (14Mt) of SAF need to be produced.

“Governments want aviation to be net zero by 2050. Having set an interim target in the CAAF process they now need to deliver policy measures that can achieve the needed exponential increase in SAF production,” said Walsh.

•    Demand is not the issue: Every drop of SAF produced has been bought and used. In fact, SAF added $756 million to a record high fuel bill in 2023. At least 43 airlines have already committed to use some 16.25 billion litres (13Mt ) of SAF in 2030, with more agreements being announced regularly.

•    Unlocking supply to meet demand is the challenge that needs to be solved: Projections are for over 78 billion litres (63Mt) of renewable fuels to be produced in 2029. Governments must set a policy framework that incentivises renewable fuel producers to allocate 25-30% of their output to SAF to meet the CAAF/3 ambition, existing regional and national policies as well as airline commitments.

Policy Objectives

Effective production incentives for SAF should support the following objectives:

•    Accelerating investments in SAF by traditional oil companies

•    Ensuring renewable fuel production incentives encourage sufficient SAF quantities

•    Focusing stakeholders on regional diversification of feedstock and SAF production

•    Identifying and prioritising high potential production projects for investment support

•    Delivering a global SAF Accounting Framework

Unlocking diversification

Approximately 85% of SAF facilities coming on line over the next five years will use Hydrotreatment (HEFA) production technology, which relies on inedible animal fats (tallow), used cooking oil and industrial grease as feedstock. Limited quantities of these necessitate policies to:

•    Diversify SAF production by increasing production through pathways already certified, in particular the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) which use bio/agricultural wastes and residue. 

•    Promote investments in, and the fast-tracking of certification for, new SAF production pathways currently in the developmental phase.

•    Identify more potential feedstocks to leverage all SAF technologies to provide diversification and regional options, including those with side-benefits such as environmental restoration.

Passenger Support

A recent IATA survey revealed significant public support for SAF. Some 86% of travellers agreed that governments should provide production incentives for airlines to be able to access SAF. In addition, 86% agreed that it should be a priority for oil companies to supply SAF to airlines.