Dubai 2011: Airbus bullish on Middle East market forecast

That was the upbeat forecast when Airbus’s charismatic COO customers, John Leahy, presented the Toulouse company’s views on market expansion in the Middle East at the Dubai Airshow yesterday.

The Middle East accounts for 7% of global air traffic and the Airbus forecast says that this will increase to 11% by 2030.

According to Airbus’s latest global market forecast (GMF), carriers in the region will require 1,921 new passenger and freighter aircraft (above 100 seats) between 2011 and 2030 valued at $347.4 billion. Of these, 1,882 are passenger aircraft ($336.3 billion) and 39 are freighter aircraft ($11.1billion).

With today’s aircraft, every major destination around the globe is within reach of a direct flight from the Middle East and this is driving an above-average passenger demand growth rate of 6.4% per year, which is well above the world average 4.8% over the next  20 years. This above-average growth rate will result in the almost trebling of the region’s fleet from more than 800 aircraft today, to some 2,260 by 2030.

According to the Airbus forecast, the region’s new passenger aircraft requirement includes: 779 single-aisle aircraft; 801 twin-aisle aircraft and 302 very large aircraft (VLA).

Of these, 1,442 aircraft will be necessary for growth and 440 for replacing ageing aircraft with newer more eco-efficient models. In the freighter aircraft category, there will be a demand for 13 twin-aisle aircraft and 26 VLA aircraft.

The Middle East remains one of the world’s most robust aviation regions and this is confirmed by a 200% increase in inter-regional passenger traffic over the last 10 years,” said Leahy. “The region is uniquely placed with more than 85% of the world’s population within reach of a direct flight, making the Middle East a fertile market place for our eco-efficient aircraft, both today and beyond.”

Below: John Leahy, Airbus COO