Dubai Airshow: Oliver Wyman warns of slow Middle East recovery

Partner at the firm, André Martins, said: “Oliver Wyman believes the global aviation industry will be back to its 2019 levels by the end of 2023, with a faster recovery in north, central and south America. The south Pacific, the Middle East and Africa will lag behind.”

The views came as a result of the third edition of the Oliver Wyman travel sentiment survey, which involved nearly 5,300 people across nine countries (Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and the US), all of whom had flown at least once in 2019.

Nearly 90% had been vaccinated against Covid-19 or are planning to be vaccinated.

“As the industry recovers, many challenges need to be addressed. In the next two to three years, it will be particularly relevant to revamp the commercial offer to bring back air traffic, address production and supply chain issues from original equipment manufacturer (OEMs) and key suppliers, while also addressing pilot shortages and debt repayments,” Martins said.

In the regional market, the company expects short-term strong demand for the UAE and Qatar markets driven by the Expo 2020 and the FIFA World Cup, along with a slow recovery of the long-haul-to-long-haul connecting model and an increase of low-cost carrier (LCC) regional traffic.

“Furthermore, we should expect an intensification of the regional competition given new potential airlines, the need to revisit the business model of some of the airlines and airports, and the need to successfully transform some of the carriers in the region into more agile organisations, with the right-size fleets and value proposition,” said Martins.